World Bank forecasts inflation in emerging economies to reach 5.1% by 2026

Inflation in emerging and developing economies, including Ghana, is projected to increase in 2026, largely due to rising global energy costs and ongoing supply chain disruptions. This is according to the latest Commodity Markets Outlook published by the World Bank.

The report estimates that consumer price inflation across these economies will climb to approximately 5.1% in 2026, contradicting earlier predictions that inflation would decline within the year.
The World Bank attributes the upward trend mainly to energy price shocks and geopolitical tensions, which are raising production and operational costs across multiple sectors globally.
It also highlights that increases in fuel prices and other key commodities are likely to pass through to consumer goods, thereby exerting additional pressure on household spending in developing countries.

Furthermore, the report cautions that inflation could worsen if disruptions in global energy supply continue. In a scenario where oil prices surge significantly due to prolonged geopolitical instability, inflation in these economies could rise to between 5.3% and 5.8% in 2026 levels not seen in nearly a decade.

Rising energy costs are expected to dampen real income growth, reduce consumer purchasing power, and increase business operating expenses across many emerging markets.
The World Bank also notes that central banks in developing economies may maintain stricter monetary policies to control inflation, potentially leading to higher borrowing costs and reduced investment.
Overall, the outlook underscores how exposed emerging economies are to global commodity price shocks, especially those that depend heavily on imported energy.