Ghana could return to IMF programme by 2033 – Bokpin

Economist Godfred Bokpin has projected that Ghana could return to another International Monetary Fund-supported programme by 2033 if the country fails to address deep-seated structural weaknesses that have historically undermined economic stability.

Speaking at the Axis Pension Trust Pension Strategy Conference in 2026, Professor Bokpin said Ghana’s recurring economic crises follow a predictable pattern that dates back to the country’s earliest experience with the IMF under Kwame Nkrumah.

“The reasons Dr. Kwame Nkrumah cited for approaching the IMF are not substantially different from the reasons we cited in 2022 for our current programme,” he stated.

He argued that Ghana’s repeated return to IMF assistance indicates that reforms introduced under successive programmes have not resolved the fundamental weaknesses in the economy.

“If we were learning from past programs with determination, we should be able to identify why we have been going there that often. I can assure you, there is a way you can predict that if these things persist, we will be there.

“When government announced that they were exiting the programme, we did our analysis and concluded that Ghana will be fully ready for another IMF-supported programme by 2032 or 2033,” he added.

Professor Bokpin warned that a potential return to the IMF may coincide with increasing stress on Ghana’s pension system, noting that delayed reforms could exacerbate fiscal pressures.

He cited recurring challenges such as volatile commodity prices, rising public debt, weakening international reserves and persistent inflation as major factors contributing to Ghana’s cyclical economic downturns.

He also referenced inflation trends dating back to the mid-1960s, pointing out that inflation jumped from below 1% in 1964 to over 26% in 1965 after the introduction of the Bank of Ghana-issued cedi.

Although inflation has moderated in recent periods, Professor Bokpin noted that the country’s economic structure makes it difficult to maintain low inflation sustainably.