Ato Forson Highlights Historic Fiscal Turnaround Ahead of SONA

Ahead of the State of the Nation Address, Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson has outlined what he describes as one of the most significant fiscal and macroeconomic recoveries in Ghana’s recent history. He pointed to sharp improvements in inflation, interest rates, debt levels and exchange rate stability as evidence of the turnaround.

Presenting details of the 2025 fiscal outturn, the Minister noted that the economy has shifted from a position of severe stress at the end of 2024 when the primary balance recorded a deficit of 3.0% of GDP, inflation stood at 23.8%, the 91-day Treasury bill rate was 27.7%, and the cedi had depreciated by 19.2%  to a period of stabilisation and surplus performance in 2025.

According to the figures, the overall fiscal deficit on a commitment basis narrowed to 1.0% of GDP in 2025, outperforming the 2.8% target. The primary balance posted a surplus of 2.6% of GDP, exceeding the 1.5% target.

On a cash basis, the overall deficit was contained at 3.1% of GDP, better than the 3.8% target, while the primary balance recorded a surplus of 0.5% of GDP.

The improved fiscal performance, supported by debt management measures, contributed to a substantial decline in public debt. Ghana’s debt stock fell by GH¢82.1 billion  from GH¢726.7 billion (61.8% of GDP) in December 2024 to GH¢641.0 billion (45.3% of GDP) by December 2025.

Provisional macroeconomic data show real GDP growth of 6.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, driven largely by the services and agriculture sectors. Non-oil growth was stronger at 7.5% over the same period, compared to 5.8% in 2024.

Inflation has declined for thirteen consecutive months, falling by 19.7 percentage points from 23.5% in January 2025 to 3.8% in January 2026. Interest rates have also eased significantly, with the 91-day Treasury bill rate dropping from 27.7% at end-2024 to 11% in December 2025, and further to 6.5% in February 2026. The average commercial bank lending rate declined from 30.25% in 2024 to 20.45% in 2025.

Private sector credit expanded by GH¢17.1 billion in 2025. Meanwhile, the cedi appreciated by 40.7% against the US dollar by end-December 2025, reversing the 19.2% depreciation recorded in 2024.

The external sector also strengthened, recording a current account surplus of US$9.1 billion in 2025, up from US$1.5 billion in 2024. Gross international reserves increased to US$13.8 billion, equivalent to 5.7 months of import cover.

Dr. Forson maintains that the strong 2025 performance reflects broad-based macroeconomic gains and places public finances on a more sustainable path heading into 2026.